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Chinese Economy to Stay Bright Against Global Slowdown: Report
2004-10-27

The Chinese economy will keep its growth rate amid predicted global slowdown in 2003, an expert said Friday in a report titled "Asian Economic Outlook."

Dong Tao, chief regional economist of Credit Suisse First Boston, a leading global investment bank, said new economic hot spots, buoyant trade and consumption would boost the Chinese economy in the new year.

"Consumption will keep robust, while the pattern will change," Dong said. "Two years ago, when you went to Shanghai or Shenyang, people talked about housing, and today, they are talking about cars."

Dong also believed that China's exports would continue to gain penetration. For example, Chinese exports to the United States, which accounted for only three percent of the latter's total in 1991, got a share of around 11 percent 10 years later, and the momentum will stay on for a rather long period.

Meanwhile, tourism is becoming an even bigger industry in the mainland, with a large number of well-off families eager to travelelsewhere, Dong said.

As for the investment China absorbs, however, Dong said, "We feel less comfortable about the investment next year, the main reason being the property market, which deserves due attention."

Dong specified the key factors affecting the property market asthe already surged home-ownership in major cities, the peak of supply, the seemingly moderating demands, and banks' measures to tighten loans.

"But I am optimistic about China's property sector in the long run," Dong added.

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