The international political developments remained tense and volatile in the early 1980s. In their bid for global supremacy, the United States and the Soviet Union continued armed race and expanded it into the space. The two countries were engaged in both dialogue and confrontation and the focus of rivalry between them shifted onto competition of their respective overall national strength. Faced with the harsh international reality, the people in the world and all the peace loving countries were keenly aware of their responsibility for upholding world peace. The forces for peace grew in strength, which made people more confident about preventing the outbreak of a world war and ensuring long-term peace. Based on cool headed observation and analysis of changes in international developments, Deng Xiaoping arrived at a new strategic judgement on war and peace. He pointed out that the view that war was inevitable was flawed and that the growth of factors for world peace exceeded the growth of factors for war. Hence, a world war could be averted and it was possible to secure peace for a fairly long period of time. He also made a pointed observation that it was possible to prevent the outbreak of a world war for a long period to come, at least during this century. This is an important strategic judgement with far reaching impact.


This judgement was based on the following considerations: (1) Only the United States and the Soviet Union were capable of fighting a world war. While they were engaged in heated armed race, neither of them was able to change the balance of terror, as was referred to in the West. Neither could obtain military superiority over the other. While each possessed sufficient nuclear weapons to destroy the other many times, neither could eliminate the other while preserving its own strength. Both realized that no one could win a nuclear war and therefore they could not afford to fight one. (2) Both the United States and the Soviet Union were competing for control of strategic outposts in the world and making strategic deployment. But both of them had run into opposition everywhere and were held in check. They therefore faced insurmountable difficulties and obstacles and were locked in stalemate in rivalry around the world. The wars of aggression launched by them all ended in failure, such as America?s wars in Korea and Indochina and the Soviet Union?s aggression against Afghanistan and its support to Viet Nam in its war of aggression against Kampuchea. Instead of winning the war, they only found themselves weakened. They had not completed their global strategic deployment, nor could they complete such deployment. Therefore, neither of them dared to start war. (3) The forces for peace in the world grew faster than the forces for war. First of all, the third world countries with three fourth of the world population, including China with a population of 1.1 billion, had become an important force for safeguarding peace and preventing war. Secondly, while Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand maintained to varying degrees relationship of alliance respectively with the United States and the Soviet Union, they did not want to start war and were becoming increasingly independent. Therefore, they also constituted an important force for safeguarding peace and preventing war. The people of the world, including the American people and Soviet people, wanted peace, not war. In the final analysis, the will of the world people is the critical factor in preventing war.


Acting on Deng Xiaoping?s sound judgement, China dedicated itself to pursuing a program of socialist modernization, reform and opening-up. It also made major foreign policy adjustments and further developed its independent foreign policy of peace. Later developments have proved the soundness of Deng Xiaoping?s judgement on war and peace.